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An Investigation into 5G and Satellite Industry Supply-Chain Economics and Spectral and Space Asset Value

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Purpose

To produce a definitive economic and technical analysis of the 5G and satellite industry supply chain with an associated forward forecast of future asset and business value and relative competitive positioning.

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Project Details

Methodology

Thirty in-depth industry high level interviews with mobile operators, satellite operators, mobile operator and satellite industry vendors, military radio and radar-system vendors, and automotive-radar and car-connectivity stakeholders.

The objective of the interviews is to establish the relative perceived value of spectral, space, and terrestrial assets and the relative perceived market potential of 5G and satellite mobile and fixed radio connectivity in developed and developing economies including Latin America, Africa, and Asia (ITU Region 1, 2 and 3).

Company interviews will be with a Tier 1 operator from each of the ITU regions, and a minimum of three satellite operators to include companies with GSO (geostationary), MEO (medium earth orbit), and LEO (low earth orbit) space assets and ongoing Ku band and Ka band constellation investments, spectral holdings, and access rights.

The vendor supply-chain interviews will include the three Tier 1 mobile broadband network vendors and the two Tier 1 device vendors and their equivalents in the satellite industry supply chain.

We will be specifically targeting respondents who are able to provide an expert view on financial and engineering and technology issues.

Each interview will be approximately 30 minutes in length with a structured set of questions. The interview process will be managed by the Policy Tracker interview team.

Please note that in similar project work, we have found that 30 interviews, if sufficiently well targeted, provide an optimum sample group size (this is not consumer research!)

Most of the companies and most of the interviewees will already have visibility to past and present research outputs from our research study consortium (RTT, Policy Tracker and The Mobile World). In our experience, this makes it easier to elicit detailed and useful expert opinion.

To extend our present analysis techniques to a broadening market sector

The study is based on industry analysis techniques that we have developed over the past 30 years that can be summarized as the science of technology economics.

The report will be approximately 60 pages in length (plus appendices) and will make extensive use of presentation graphics to highlight present value and risk distribution in the industry with modeling of a minimum of three future industry scenarios assigning different weightings on terrestrial and satellite spectral and network value and the relative market reach value and technology value of each supply chain and the major players in each supply chain. The value modelling will use inputs from the industry interviews correlated with our own research and in-house data sets.

We would expect to analyse, at a minimum, the following companies (by sector):
5G Terrestrial Mobile Operators
AT&T, Verizon, China Mobile, Vodafone
5G Network vendors -- Ericsson, Nokia
5G device vendors -- Samsung and Qualcomm
5G component vendors -- Broadcom, Skyworks, Qorvo
These companies have a combined turnover of more than US $700 billion and directly employ one billion people.

The Satellite Industry
Satellite operators to include Inmarsat, Intelsat, Viasat, Eutelsat, Iridium, SES/O3B, Orbcomm, Echostar, Alibaba and Tencent.
Satellite system vendors – Boeing, Lockheed, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, General Dynamics, Harris (and their related military system divisions).
These companies have a combined turnover of US $200 billion and employ 100,000 people (excluding civilian aviation production).

Other stakeholders -- the GAFA Quartet and Webscale Internet Companies WICS):
Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft
These companies have a combined turnover of US $500 billion, $500 billion of cash assets, and employ 500,000 people

Other stakeholders -- the automotive industry:
Toyota, VW, GM, Ford, Tesla
These companies have a combined turnover of US $800 billion and employ 1.3 billion people

Test equipment vendors -– Keysight, R and S, Anritsu
These companies have a combined turnover of US $5 billion and employ 25,000 people

The report will be approximately 60 pages in length (plus appendices) and will make extensive use of presentation graphics to highlight present value and risk distribution in the industry with modeling of a minimum of three future industry scenarios assigning different weightings on terrestrial and satellite spectral and network value and the relative market reach value and technology value of each supply chain and the major players in each supply chain. The value modelling will use inputs from the industry interviews correlated with our own research and in-house data sets.

We would expect to analyse, at a minimum, the following companies (by sector):
5G Terrestrial Mobile Operators
AT&T, Verizon, China Mobile, Vodafone
5G Network vendors -- Ericsson, Nokia
5G device vendors -- Samsung and Qualcomm
5G component vendors -- Broadcom, Skyworks, Qorvo
These companies have a combined turnover of more than US $700 billion and directly employ one billion people.

The Satellite Industry
Satellite operators to include Inmarsat, Intelsat, Viasat, Eutelsat, Iridium, SES/O3B, Orbcomm, Echostar, Alibaba and Tencent.
Satellite system vendors – Boeing, Lockheed, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, General Dynamics, Harris (and their related military system divisions).
These companies have a combined turnover of US $200 billion and employ 100,000 people (excluding civilian aviation production).

Other stakeholders -- the GAFA Quartet and Webscale Internet Companies WICS):
Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft
These companies have a combined turnover of US $500 billion, $500 billion of cash assets, and employ 500,000 people

Other stakeholders -- the automotive industry:
Toyota, VW, GM, Ford, Tesla
These companies have a combined turnover of US $800 billion and employ 1.3 billion people

Test equipment vendors -– Keysight, R and S, Anritsu
These companies have a combined turnover of US $5 billion and employ 25,000 people

Name: Geoff Varrall

Company: RTT Programmes

Previous Projects: 1

Rating: Supplier has not been rated

RTT:
RTT has been providing technology assessment and technology related facilitation programmes to an international client base since 1986. The company's knowledge and experience is principally in mobile broadband terrestrial and satellite and broadcast communications. RTT works closely with a cross section of the industry and the international academic, scientific and industrial research community.

Our present research centres on the technology and engineering economics of 5G mobile broadband in developed and developing economies, helping to develop research that maximises return on engineering, infrastructure and spectral investment. www.rttonline.com

RTT Team leader for this study- Geoff Varrall
Geoff Varrall joined RTT in 1985 as an executive director and shareholder to develop RTT's international business as a provider of technology and business services to the wireless industry.
He co-developed RTT's original series of design and facilitation workshops including 'RF Technology', 'Data over Radio', 'Introduction to Mobile Radio', and 'Private Mobile Radio Systems and developed 'The Oxford Programme', a five day strategic technology and market programme presented annually between 1991 and 2005. Geoff has been running in depth technology and market workshops for the industry for over 30 years, spanning five generations of mobile cellular technology.
A co-author of the Mobile Radio Servicing Handbook (Heinemann Butterworth, UK), Data Over Radio, (Quantum Publishing, Mendocino, USA and 3G Handset and Network Design (John Wiley, New York). Geoff's fourth book, Making Telecoms Work – from technical innovation to commercial success (John Wiley) was published in early 2012. His most recent book, 5G Spectrum and Standards was published by Artech House in July 2016. He also writes regularly for a number of European trade journals and chairs a broad cross section of industry conference and trade events, presents on the twice annual Understanding Spectrum Management Programme organised by Policy Tracker and is a co-author of the Policy Tracker study - 5G and its vertical markets - challenges and opportunities 2015-2030 . In his spare time he plays Jazz trumpet and is a keen and competitive marathon runner.

The Mobile World
The Mobile World is a market data and analysis company focused on the global telecommunications sector. Founded by experienced telecoms financial analysts with more four decades of experience at the forefront of industry research, The Mobile World is the world's most accurate, detailed and accountable source of telecommunications market intelligence.
http://www.themobileworld.com/

The Mobile World Team leader for this study – John Tysoe
John was a financial analyst on the telecoms sector for more than 25 years in the City of London before founding The Mobile World. During his City career, John was head of telecoms research at Kleinwort Benson, NatWest Securities, Lehman Brothers, Societe Generale, and WestLB Panmure. John has been at the forefront of mobile telecoms research since the inception of the industry and was the only analyst to recognize, document and dimension the initial dramatic under valuation of cellular operators and their supply chain in the US, Europe and Asia.

Policy Tracker:

Policy Tracker is internationally recognised and respected as a comprehensive source of information on spectrum issues and for their analytical work on global regulatory and competition policy in the mobile broadband industry.

Recent research studies include:
♣ A five-year outlook for LTE spectrum
♣ Developments in mobile technology and allocation
♣ Use of the 3- 6 GHz bands for IMT
♣ What is 5G?
♣ Infrastructure sharing
♣ Spectrum valuation and pricing
♣ Spectrum for intelligent transport systems
♣ Auction strategies of major foreign telecom carriers
♣ Licensed shared access
♣ Developments in monitoring
♣ LTE broadcast
♣ The future of terrestrial TV
♣ The second digital dividend (700 MHz)
♣ Use of the 700MHz spectrum band in Thailand
♣ TV whitespace
www.policytracker.com

Policy Tracker Team Leader for this study - Martin Simms
Martin is an analyst, trainer and former academic who specializes in communications policy issues. He has first-hand experience of the UK broadcasting sector, having worked as a News Editor in independent radio then as a journalist for BBC network news. He set up Policy Tracker in 2004 and has written widely on spectrum management policy issues as well as setting up a wide range of training courses,  developing auctions software and running the 2014 2.3 GHz auction in Nigeria. He has an MA in Communications from the University of Westminster and is a co-author of Understanding Spectrum Liberalisation (CRC Press).

Geoff Varrall from RTT; John Tysoe from The Mobile World; and Martin Sims from Policy Tracker

- Free in-person presentation for buying more than one share.
- Phone review of each interim draft of the study (end of month 1, 2 and 3)
- In-company workshop to present research findings and implications

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The Pitch

Telecommunications is a trillion-dollar industry with 5G promoted as the next big enabler of growth both in developed and developing economies. However, this growth will only be achieved if the satellite industry is motivated to share its spectral and space assets including C band and Ku and Ka band spectrum.

Mobile and satellite operators are highly leveraged and are reliant on vendor supply-chain support. “Over-the-top players,” such as Google and Facebook, are starting to invest in access infrastructure and are cash rich. Additionally, the military and the automotive industry are increasingly important stakeholders.

So, the question is: Who will own added value in next- generation mobile broadband?

Co-funding price: $50,000.00 Co-fund this project

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